Every so often it’s worth taking a breath, stepping back, and asking a simple question: Because if you look at the headlines alone, you’d think we’re sitting on the edge of catastrophe. But if you look at the data — properly look at it — the story is far more nuanced. Over the last couple of months I’ve been watching several themes develop across markets, credit, earnings, valuations, and global activity. As we head into the final stretch of the year, here’s where I think we actually stand....

Let's talk about this properly. Private credit, public credit. Everyone is panicking about private credit risk. The headlines. The scare-mongering. "Bubble!" "Implosion!" "Just wait!" Blah blah blah. Meanwhile… have you looked at public credit spreads lately? Skinny. Insanely tight. Paper-thin compensation for risk. If something breaks in the economy, a real systemic event, the order of pain is pretty simple: ‍ 1. Public equity gets smashed first. Sentiment turns. Liquidity evaporates....

The markets stumbled again this week. Not because of an earnings miss, or an interest rate surprise — but because of something far older. Power. Pride. Politics. U.S.–China tensions have entered a new stage. And the world, once again, is holding its breath. Over the weekend, global equity markets took their biggest fall in six months, unwinding part of a rally that had lifted stocks more than 36% since April’s lows. The trigger came from a familiar voice. President Trump announced plans to...